About BayesianBahn
BayesianBahn estimates train arrival times as probability distributions rather than giving a single predicted time. Users enter an origin, destination, and travel date, including a future date, then compare direct trains and journeys with one transfer. For each option, the app shows a median arrival time, an 80% credible interval, a chart of possible delays, and the likelihood of catching a connecting train. A filter can limit results to regional trains suitable for the Deutschland-Ticket. Routes requiring two or more changes are not supported, so the app may show fewer options than a general journey planner. Predictions are based on historical arrival records for trains at stations, adjusted for how recent the data is and the day of the week. When a current delay is reported, the forecast incorporates it; otherwise, the app relies on the historical pattern. For transfers, it calculates the chance of boarding based on whether a train has departed and reflects missed connections in the overall arrival distribution. Live station boards and individual train predictions, including cancellation rates, are also available. The delay history is refreshed through small daily data updates. Trains without sufficient history receive a prior estimate rather than a fabricated record. The app is described as experimental and advises checking times and connections against the official rail service. It does not require an account or API key and collects no data.
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